Projected Changes in Disease-Modifying Therapies for MS in Italy
Projections indicate the number of patients with MS treated by disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in Italy will rise to around 77,000 by 2029, up by 10% from 2024. A decrease in traditional therapies is expected, while new therapies like BTK inhibitors may capture a 16% share soon after launching. Overall DMT expenditure is predicted to drop from €784 million in 2024 to €622 million in 2029.
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Why it matters
These findings highlight a significant shift in MS treatment patterns toward new, potentially more effective therapies. The decline in spending suggests changes in the market and therapeutic strategies, which could impact healthcare costs and patient access to treatment.
What this does not prove
This study does not offer clinical outcomes or efficacy data for the therapies projected. The estimates are based on models and expert opinions rather than direct clinical evidence.
Next milestone
No next milestone was established from the available source.
Study facts
- Study design
- Not reported
- Participants / samples
- Not reported
- Randomised
- Not reported
- Controlled
- Not reported
- Primary endpoint met
- Not reported
- Relevant MS type
- Not reported
- Publication date
- 2026-10-03
- Evidence reviewed
- Abstract only
- Regulatory approval
- Not reported
- Research areas
- Not classified
Original sources
- Primary evidenceHorizon Scanning of Multiple Sclerosis Expenditure in Italy (2025-2029): Updated Insights from the Oracle Model. ↗DOI: 10.1007/s40120-026-01042-7
Supporting passages (5)
study phaseMETHODS: Building on a published horizon-scanning model (i.e., Oracle), this study updates projections of expenditure and treatment patterns for MS DMTs through 2029, integrating clinical inputs (i.e., treated patients, patient shares for each reimbursed therapy) with economic inputs (i.e., annual therapy costs).
interventionThe objective of the present research is to estimate the Italian NHS expenditure for MS disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) between 2025 and 2029.
findingsRESULTS: This study shows that the number of treated patients is projected to rise to about 77,000 by 2029, i.e., approximately + 10% from 2024.
publication datePublication date: 2026-10-03
limitationsTitle: Horizon Scanning of Multiple Sclerosis Expenditure in Italy (2025-2029): Updated Insights from the Oracle Model.
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